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Weekly Global Market Commentary

  • 2009 Starts With High Hopes - MC - 01/05/2009

    Equities markets entered 2009 with a bang on Friday with many indices up over 3% for the day and over 6% for the week. The rally brought the Dow to a two-month high as we enter the first full trading week of the new year. The market seems to have already discounted poor economic news, and essentially passed over reports that U.S. housing prices dropped 18% in October, consumer confidence hit a record low in December, and that U.S. manufacturing conditions are at their weakest point since 1980.


  • IPC Newsletter Asset Allocation Update: Bullish on Commodities, Bearish on Yen and Treasuries - 12/22/2008

    The market continues to be full of uncertainty rather than risk that can be priced. The uncertainty will remain present while the likelihood of future events are indefinite or incalculable. Risk will become quantifiable when future events occur with measurable probability. We believe this will happen in 2009. This has caused us to make the following strategic forecast:


  • Christmas Comes Early for Some - MC - 12/22/2008

    Last Friday, President Bush announced that up to $17.4 billion would be available to GM and Chrysler in short-term financing. GM stock ended the week up 10%, helping the Dow finish down only 0.6% despite bigger declines in many of its components.


  • World Markets Rally - MC - 12/15/2008

    Most equity indices worldwide recovered nicely last week, showing 4%-7% gains. Only the Shanghai Stock Exchange was down in a meaningful way while U.S. markets were flat. Year-over-year, the TSX Venture Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange have underperformed although returns in other markets haven’t been so rosy either.


  • Market Deja Vu? - MC - 12/08/2008

    Equity indices worldwide were hugely volatile yet again last week but many had a big rally on Friday, a trend we’ve seen in 5 out of the last 6 weeks. Canadian indices dropped the most while the only major market in the positive for the week and for the month was the Shanghai Stock Exchange.


  • Economic Forecast: Long Equities, Decrease Yen Position, and Remain Vigilant on U.S. Dollar - 12/03/2008

    Equity markets worldwide have seen huge declines in excess of 30% over the last year. We think a short-term rally may be in order and are therefore increasing our stock exposure by 3.0%. We are proceeding cautiously though and remaining nimble due to the extreme volatility seen in markets currently.


  • Markets Make Big Gains Before Holiday Season - 12/01/2008

    Global markets saw huge recoveries last week with many world equity indices up 10%-13%. The moves were jump started last Sunday by the government rescue of Citigroup, which included the absorption of over $300 billion in the company’s bad assets.


  • Troubled Markets Continue - 11/24/2008

    Global markets felt more pain last week with many equity markets down 7%-12%. European markets and commodities fared the worse, although gold had a nice run from $742 to $800 week-over-week.


  • Rare Bright Spots? - 11/17/2008

    Global equity markets continued their downward trend last week. Despite a few valiant efforts and big intraday swings, the Dow refused to close below 8,200. Only the Shanghai Stock Exchange was in positive territory weekover-week at +13.7%, thanks to a $586 billion stimulus package announced just over a week ago. The worst performing market for 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year returns continues to be the TSX Venture exchange as commodity prices have fallen substantially.


  • Volatility and Declines Continue - 11/10/2008

    Stocks followed a “buy the rumor, sell the news” trend last week going into the U.S. presidential elections. Most indices closed up over 3% on Tuesday (election day) but then dropped precipitously the following two days despite Obama’s big win. Markets made a nice recovery on Friday that allowed Asia to end the week in the black and Europe slightly down, although U.S. markets were down around 4% week-over-week.


  • Strong Finish to a Rough Month - 11/03/2008

    Global markets ended last week quite strong after weeks of battering. Despite a myriad of bad news, the Dow ended the week 11% up, softening October’s loss to -14%. Asia, with the exception of the Shanghai market, and Europe fared much of the same last week. For 1-year returns, the biggest losers are Shanghai (-71%), TSX Venture (-71%), and Hang Seng (-55%). In comparison, the Dow and TSX were down a still-painful 33% from a year ago.


  • All Pain, No Gain - 10/27/2008

    Stocks followed their volatile trend last week with the Dow showing triple-digit swings every day. On Friday morning, Dow and S&P futures hit limit down following declines of 9.6% and 8.3% in the Nikkei and Hang Seng, respectively. The Dow finished 3.6% points down by the end of the day and was 5.3% down for the week. London’s FTSE finished the week 4.4% in the red while Asian markets fared much worse on average.


  • Economic Forecast: Long Equities and Dollar, Short Government Debt - 10/23/2008

    The LOM Investment Policy Committee has issued its economic forecast and recommended global allocations for the upcoming month. Please reference the attached PDF or visit http://www.lom.com/investment-policy-committee for the complete release.