Equity and Bond Market Economic Research
Global Perspectives
Our own in-house research from Strategist/Senior Portfolio Manager, Iraj Pouyandeh. Our research provides insights into global financial markets.
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May 2008 - Growth Prospects and Inflation Problems - 05-06-2008
The US economy continues to put in a feeble performance, with exports helping to prevent even greater weakness. China faces an inflation problem that the authorities are trying to address with measured policy steps. The Eurozone economy’s inflation challenge is less serious but it is keeping the ECB from reducing interest rates. Japanese domestic demand shows no signs of being able to drive the economy if global growth falters.
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April 2008 - Uncertainty Generates Volatility - 04-07-2008
Investors are looking for signs of a resolution of the credit crunch, amid volatility on the markets. However many problems remain and there isn’t a great deal of clarity about the state of the financial system. There has been considerable government intervention in the US to save the system and observers are waiting for a rescue plan for troubled homeowners and banks. This would boost the prospects for riskier assets.
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March 2008 - Challenging Times and Difficult Choices - 03-03-2008
Data on the US economy signal falling output and rising inflation, forcing difficult choices on policymakers. There are increasing concerns about higher inflation, even as the Fed concentrates on preventing a recession. Adjustments in the housing sector are ongoing, amid continuing trouble in the financial sector. Downside risks have increased for the US economy.
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February 2008 - Aggressive Moves to Forestall a US Recession - 02-04-2008
US policymakers implement aggressive measures to prevent the economy from falling into recession. These are short-term measures that do not take account of longer-term consequences. There is a possibility of further damage to the Fed’s credibility. Ostensibly sophisticated risk-management systems and products have not generally performed well under real-world test conditions.
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January 2008 - Tougher Economic Times Ahead - 01-07-2008
The global economy has entered an uncertain period in which a growth slowdown is widely expected. In this context, a great deal of attention will be focused on the US economy which is at risk of experiencing recessionary conditions. Note that we have not explicitly predicted a recession, which by definition is two quarters of negative growth.
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December 2007 - Uncertain Outlook Keeps Markets Volatile - 12-03-2007
There is increasing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy. Credit markets remain jumpy, among continuing worries about bank balance sheets. Central banks seek to provide sufficient liquidity to calm the markets, which remain volatile. There are more signs of slowdown in the United States as households face challenging conditions.
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November 2007 - Housing Blues Haven’t Gone Away - 11-05-2007
Housing continues to weigh down on prospects for the US economy. Credit market conditions remain difficult and the Fed has not finished easing. The dollar is under pressure as speculation pushes up oil prices. Risk appetite favours emerging market equities.
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October 2007 - A Cloudier Economic Outlook for the United States - 10-01-2007
While still strong, the US economy is facing head winds. The Fed will attempt to avoid a recession, putting concerns about inflation on the back burner. Creating more liquidity helps to pump up the stock market and shore up risk appetite.
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September 2007 - The Hazards of Central Banking - 09-03-2007
Central bankers have been pumping more liquidity into the system to calm credit markets. Excessive risk-taking during the past few years has been encouraged by easy monetary conditions. In trying to prevent market adjustments and the re-pricing of risk, central banks may cause further volatility and instability in the future.
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August 2007 - Unsettled Credit Markets Unnerve Investors - 08-06-2007
Credit-market conditions are deteriorating and investors are beginning to re-price risk. Complex financial instruments and derivatives have introduced opacity into the system. Globalisation ensures that US sub-prime problems will have widespread impact.
